The hottest industrial product PK precious metal w

2022-08-05
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Who will be the long winner of industrial products PK precious metals?

under the influence of the increasingly loose international monetary environment and domestic counter cyclical adjustment, the industry believes that the long market of precious metals and industrial products in the commodity market this year is more promising. Although the current gold rally lags behind that of industrial products, it is more optimistic about the certainty of its long market throughout the year

the rise of industrial products overtook that of precious metals

as a commodity asset that had been favored at the end of last year, gold has performed poorly so far this year. According to the statistics of Wenhua finance, the main Comex gold futures contracts have risen by only 2.3% this year. Under the expectation of the slowdown of domestic economic fundamentals, the industrial products futures that were not optimistic in the early stage unexpectedly gained an increase of more than 5%, which can also be expressed as the ability of materials to resist residual deformation and anti damage. During this period, the maximum increase exceeded 11%. In addition, it is worth noting that the Baltic dry bulk freight index (BDI) has rebounded slightly since February, and the monthly line has achieved "two consecutive positives"

insiders said that there are two main factors behind the strength of industrial futures this year. First, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy has shifted to "doves" and external disturbance factors have been eased, risk assets have risen, and crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices have been periodically repaired. Since the beginning of this year, 4. There has been no shock to the environment. The international oil price has increased by more than 21%, the Wenhua finance, finance and chemical industry (domestic) sector has increased by 4.53%, and the non-ferrous metal sector (domestic) has increased by 1.64%. Second, in terms of the black system, due to the fact that the accumulation of steel inventory in the early stage was weaker than that in the same period of previous years, the slow accumulation of inventory led to a decent rebound in steel prices; Iron ore also rebounded sharply due to supply side disturbance. According to statistics, the black industry chain index has risen by 4.74% this year, of which iron ore futures have risen by more than 23% and rebar futures have risen by more than 8%

it is worth mentioning that the performance of domestic agricultural futures is poor under the mitigation of external disturbance factors, with a slight decline of 0.29% since this year

since the beginning of this year, the precious metal market has experienced a strong shock rather than a rise. This week, gold and silver prices adjusted significantly again against the backdrop of a stronger US dollar. In this regard, according to the analysis of industrial investment (UK), the main reason is that the yield of US bonds rose slightly on Tuesday, easing the market's concern about the recession of the economic outlook. The operating steps of the spring testing machine above the US rose sharply, and set a new two-week high. Despite the weak data on US housing starts and consumer confidence index released during the New York session, gold bulls once retreated to US $1312.57/oz

"in the near future, the British Parliament will hold 'indicative votes' on several brexit alternatives, which is expected to bring more fluctuations to the pound. If these risk events trigger risk aversion, gold is still expected to continue to rise." According to the analysis of the agency, as long as the gold price continues to run above $1300/ounce, the overall bullish view is still held

bullish opportunities in precious metals are deterministic

on the whole, the current operating pattern of commodity prices can be summarized as that risky assets are stronger than hedging assets

researchers pointed out that since the end of last year, officials of the Federal Reserve have gradually turned to "doves", and the European Central Bank has also stated that it will raise interest rates for the first time at the end of 2019, which is later than expected. These factors, on the one hand, confirm that the global economic cycle has fallen after years of deep cultivation in the Chinese market. On the other hand, they have also brought support to risky assets. In the commodity market, nonferrous metals, crude oil, black series and other sectors strengthened, and the rise of precious metals slowed down

ppi stabilized year-on-year in February, which also confirmed that the demand was acceptable and the deflationary pressure was relieved. Relevant research of Industrial Securities pointed out that PPI stabilized year-on-year in February, but it did not exceed expectations. In February, the purchase and ex factory prices of PMI both rebounded, and the deflationary pressure on PPI was relieved to a certain extent. The rebound in PPI was also affected by the rebound in international energy prices

however, it is worth noting that analysts believe that the year-on-year growth rate of M1, the leading indicator of PPI, has not yet stabilized, and the rebound of domestic industrial products is still at risk at any time. In addition, with the weakening of overseas economic cycles, non-ferrous metal varieties that are sensitive to the macro cycle of international economy still have downward risks for a long time

"Relatively speaking, the uncertainty of industrial products is higher than that of precious metals. After the inventory cycle repair in the first quarter, it is expected that industrial products will face the synchronous downward phase of the short cycle between China and the United States in the second and third quarters of 2019, which is beneficial to short sellers. However, the uncertainty lies in China's way of adjusting the later stage of the cycle. At present, the growth rate of infrastructure has picked up, and the output of consumer industrial products is expected to gradually hit the bottom. If the new construction of real estate does not go down, China's cycle will be long Adjustments may be made in a relatively firm manner. Therefore, from the perspective of the game, it is higher to look at more precious metals than to look at short industrial products. " Guohao, an analyst at CITIC Securities, analyzed

focus on the market pattern switching

"the uncertainty of industrial products lies in the firmness of the new construction of domestic real estate. Long gold is the most deterministic opportunity in the commodity market this year." Guo Hao believes that the most deterministic opportunity for commodities this year comes from precious metals. The logic is the adjustment of real interest rate caused by the reduction of US economic growth expectation. This trend is likely to continue. First, the inventory cycle of the US manufacturing industry has entered an adjustment period of more than one year, which is determined by its 42 month short cycle and mean value regression law; Second, whether this adjustment is conducted in a moderate or drastic manner, the market's expectations for us economic growth will be adjusted downward from the original excessively high base, resulting in a decline in real interest rates

"the attitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting has further changed to a 'dove', which confirms that the US economy has entered a short cycle adjustment stage. During the adjustment, it is expected that the market's expectations for economic growth will be rapidly lowered, the monetary policy will change, the real interest rate will accelerate downward, and the gold price is expected to enter a new round of upward trend." Guo Hao said

from the perspective of specific varieties, the steel and iron ore futures with large increase in the early stage have fallen into adjustment recently. Looking forward to the future, Zeng Ning and Zhou Tao, analysts of CITIC futures, analyzed that at present, the spot markets around the country have fallen slightly, and the transaction of building materials has dropped. After part of the demand was released in advance, under the pressure of the high demand base last year, the inventory removal rate slowed down steadily, but the current environmental protection expectation and downstream demand toughness still have some support for the steel price. However, with the recovery of steel-making profits, steel production will continue to increase. Near April, the expectation of demand decline begins to increase. The spot is facing downward pressure. The expectation of "running ahead" on the disk has begun to be fulfilled. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a weak shock

for iron ore, Vale announced last week that it was allowed to resume the operation of brucutu mining area and Laranjeiras tailings dam; In addition, it announced the preventive suspension of the operation of Alegria, a large iron ore mine in the southeast of Minas Gerais, Brazil, with a potential impact of 10million tons. Under the influence of the above news, iron ore futures fell sharply. Relevant research of Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that the closure and resumption of production of Vale mining area increased short-term market fluctuations. At this stage, there is great uncertainty about the closure and restoration of Vale mining area. The short-term iron ore price will fluctuate greatly. The view of tight iron ore supply throughout the year will be maintained, and the medium and long-term bottom will come in advance

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