The investment of the hottest railway slows down,

Railway investment slows down: infrastructure funds may be less than 500billion next year

the source said that although the final figure of railway infrastructure investment in 2014 has not been finalized yet, the initial upper limit is 500billion, significantly smaller than the 530billion amount in 2013, and the source of funds has not been finalized one by one, but it is expected that the capital structure will still be similar to that in 2013

after the central economic work conference, all ministries and commissions will also hold their own annual work meetings in succession to arrange the work tasks and plans for 2014

the national railway work conference should be held around the end of this month, when the railway investment plan for 2014 will be announced. A source close to China Railway Corporation (hereinafter referred to as the Railway Corporation) said

in 2013, the national railway infrastructure investment was 530billion yuan, and the plan at the beginning of the year was 520billion yuan. However, in January, the actually completed investment was only 383.5 billion, with a gap of 150billion

in the past two years, railway investment has exceeded the plan. In 2012, Sheng Guangzu, the former Minister of the Ministry of railways, announced at the road wide work conference at the end of 2011 that the infrastructure investment was 400billion yuan. As a result, by the end of the year, the actual investment in infrastructure was 516billion yuan

the behavior of additional investment is related to the attention paid by the decision-making level to railway construction. Premier Li Keqiang said on many occasions that China's railways, whether in terms of total mileage or per capita mileage, and then the signal is handled by the processor, are far behind the United States and other developed countries. In the future, railways will still be built, especially in the central and western regions

2013 is the end of the year, and the burden of completing the 12th Five Year Plan will not be heavy in the remaining two years

according to the source, Sheng Guangzu said at a meeting last year that according to the 12th Five Year Plan for railway construction, the whole road will continue to complete the new line investment of 1.37 trillion yuan in the second three years of the 12th Five Year Plan, and 20700 kilometers of the new line will be put into operation. The newly opened microbial fermentation can produce three renewable rubber intermediates: isoprene, isobutene and butene. The investment in the project will reach 540billion yuan, and the investment in railway construction will still remain at a historical high. In the next three years, the annual capital construction investment will be maintained at 450 billion yuan, and the annual production line will be maintained at about 7000 kilometers, reaching a total of about 21000 kilometers in three years

according to this statement, the railway infrastructure investment in 2013 was 530billion yuan, which has exceeded the expected annual average value. If the investment is strictly in accordance with the plan, the average infrastructure investment in 2014 and 2015 only needs to reach about 410billion yuan to complete the investment task. However, considering the importance of the central government on railway construction, it may exceed the standard to complete the task at the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, and the investment volume in the next two years may be about 450billion yuan, But it is estimated that it will not exceed 500billion yuan

the above source said that another reason why the investment volume will be reduced next year is that, according to the past practice, if the decision-making level feels that the overall economy is about to rush or the central government is not very nervous about funding, it may also increase railway investment, so there is no need to set the plan at the beginning of the year too high

in addition, the increasing debt burden on the total railway also makes the railway planning department dare not rush to expand the project

according to the financial statements at the end of the third quarter of 2013, the total debt of the company has reached 3064.2 billion yuan, and the debt ratio has reached 63.22%. Both the debt and the debt ratio have increased year by year and quarter by quarter

on the contrary, the profitability of total railway is still poor. At the end of the third quarter of 2013, the after tax profit of total railway was -1.731 billion yuan

Hu Siji, a professor at the school of transportation of Beijing Jiaotong University, said that although the railway administration implemented the freight organization reform throughout the railway in, the overall economic situation this year was not as optimistic as in previous years, and the coal price fell in general this year, and the coal demand was also depressed. In addition, although the railway reform has achieved the overall separation of government and enterprises, it has led the development of the B2B industry in recent years. All railway bureaus and even the bottom stations and depots have not become independent businesses The market vitality of the business entity responsible for its own profits and losses has not been brought into play, and various factors have led to the loss of railway operation

according to the above-mentioned sources, some railway projects originally planned to start this year will be postponed to next year, among which the large one is the Mengxi central China coal transportation special line. The estimated investment of this line is more than 150billion yuan, and the actual investment in the final construction is likely to reach 200billion yuan. The other is the passenger dedicated line from Beijing to Shenyang, which has been delayed repeatedly due to environmental impact assessment problems

Wang Mengshu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, said that the 12th Five Year Plan for railways clearly proposed, at least in principle, that passenger dedicated lines with four vertical and four horizontal lines should be built during the 12th Five Year Plan period. At present, most of these lines have been opened, such as Beijing Shanghai, Beijing Shenzhen, Harbin Dalian and the southeast coast, but Hangzhou Changsha passenger dedicated line has not been opened. It is expected that they will enter the final stage in succession from next year